A quiet revolution is taking place: we are becoming less and less religious, worldwide and across generations. New research published in Nature Communications shows that secularisation is not a local phenomenon but a universal trend.

Led by Dutch sociologist Nan Dirk de Graaf, an international team analysed data from 95 countries. Their findings surprised the researchers: even in Islamic strongholds such as Egypt, Pakistan and Iran, and in Buddhist societies such as Thailand and Sri Lanka, there are clear signs of a decline in religious belief.

‘Most people think that secularisation is something typically Western, but the data show that the process is taking place worldwide, just not at the same pace everywhere.’ – Nan Dirk de Graaf

A difficult puzzle

Sociologists have long struggled to measure declining religious belief. In some countries young people attended the mosque less often, but continued to feel connected to their religion. In other countries, that sense of connection declined while attendance remained unchanged. There seemed to be no clear pattern.

Until De Graaf and his colleagues had an insight. ‘Our starting point is a simple, economic idea: people give up first what costs them the most time and effort.’ Based on that idea, they suddenly saw a recognisable sequence in the data. The researchers concluded that declining religious affiliation worldwide occurs in three stages:

• First, the rituals disappear: less frequent visits to church or mosque, less participation in communal celebrations.
• Then religion loses its importance in personal life: people say that faith is becoming less important to them.
• Finally, the sense of belonging disappears: the idea that you belong to a religious community diminishes.

These successive phases were found to be present everywhere, from Western Europe to Latin America, and from South Asia to the Islamic world.

Young versus old
A striking pattern in the data is that young people are always at the forefront. Among those under 40, there is less participation in religious rituals worldwide, and often a weaker identification with faith. The generation gap thus becomes a powerful signal that secularisation is continuing, even in countries traditionally considered to be very religious.

In Islamic countries, this process has only just begun. Young people are more likely to skip rituals such as visiting the mosque, but still consider religion important in their personal lives. In Western Europe, on the other hand, the religious bond has largely been abandoned, both in terms of rituals, importance and connection.

The causes of the global loss of faith
What is the underlying cause of this global loss of faith? According to the researchers, the main driver is the modernisation of societies. As people enjoy more and better education, a scientific view of the world is replacing religious explanations. The rise of welfare states and social safety nets also plays a major role: where people used to depend on the church or mosque for support and guidance, the state now fulfils those functions. It is a process that is slow but inevitable. Researchers estimate that the entire cycle of religious decline could take as long as two hundred years. Every society is somewhere on this sliding scale, with differences in speed and phase.

The only notable exception? Israel. There, the younger generation is actually more religious than the older generation, due to factors such as high birth rates among Orthodox Jews and political tensions that reinforce religious identity.

We are becoming less and less religious, worldwide and across generations, but this does not mean that we are becoming less spiritual or less in need of meaning. What disappears are the traditional religious structures of ritual, identity, and belonging. In their place, a search emerges for secular forms of spirituality, focused on personal meaning, consciousness, and lived experience rather than dogma. How can we actively help individuals fill the gap in guidance, community, and support left by declining religious affiliation?